【悉尼房产】 留学生推高市区房价

“留学生推高了市区租赁投资市场，不过澳洲房价仍然在掌控中”澳储银资深人士说。

Luci Ellis在一次悉尼大学举行的城市规划研讨会中提到，悉尼市区中高密度住宅区物业仍然供不应求，以至于房价明显高于全澳平均水平。

但是，民众的房贷偿还能力在过去10年中没有太大变化。而与此同时，房价起起伏伏均有出现。

“物业价格比物价涨的快，不过并没有实质性的超过家庭收入的增长。”

她说房价04年跌，09年又全球金融危机影响一直延续到2011。

“而悉尼房价均受到影响而下跌”

“这并不是一个房价只涨不跌的国家，大家都经历过房价下跌时代”

“认为澳洲房价只涨不跌的是完全错误的。”

她认为，澳洲不像07年左右的美国/爱尔兰/西班牙等，物业明显超过需求以致泡沫破裂，而澳洲仍然是出于供不应求的局面。

(澳洲房产没有泡沫)

其中有一部分是海外留学生，他们选择在市区附近居住，即便毕业后也通过工作签证而继续留在澳洲

“这里有个假设是，我们需要更多的物业提供给海外来的人口：移民、学生”

“幸运的是，我们仅需要为这批学生或曾经是学生的人们解决居住问题即可。”

“他们想住哪里？而刚毕业的学生又希望住哪里？”

“既然不是拖家带口的大家庭，所以离学校近的公寓会是首选”

（学校周围的公寓很抢手）

当前的低利率，低通胀，高存率环境相比10年前更容易还贷。

原文阅读：

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/students-driving-up-inner-city-property-prices-rba-20141028-3j0vj.html

Demand for student rental accommodation was driving up the premium for inner-city property in Sydney, but housing affordability in Australia generally was manageable, says the head of financial stability at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Luci Ellis told an urban planning seminar at Sydney University on Monday night that pent-up demand in Sydney and other urban centres for more medium- and high-density living had driven prices for all types of inner-city properties well above the national median.

However, people's ability to service existing mortgages had not changed much in the past 10 years. During that time, houses prices had fallen as well as risen, she said.

"It’s little appreciated just how concentrated that population growth has become in students and former students.": RBA head of financial stability Luci Ellis.

"It’s little appreciated just how concentrated that population growth has become in students and former students.": RBA head of financial stability Luci Ellis. Photo: Michel O'Sullivan

"Prices have risen faster than consumer prices, but they have not risen materially faster than household incomes," she said.

She said house prices actually fell in 2004, in the 2009 aftermath of the global financial crisis and then "for an extended period around 2011".

"In Sydney they fell on all three occasions," she said.

"This is not a country where we haven't experienced house price falls; we have experienced house price falls. There is risk in the system that people have already experienced," she said.

"It's simply incorrect to treat the Australian history as if there had never been any kind of downturn."

She said unlike in the US, Ireland and Spain, where the global credit squeeze of 2007 and 2008 had exposed oversupply in housing markets which subsequently crashed, Australia was still struggling to keep up with demand.

Some of this came from foreign students looking for inner-city rental accommodation and graduates who stayed on with working visas.

"There is an assumption here that we need more housing to accommodate the people are who arriving [from overseas]," she said.

"But it's little appreciated just how concentrated that population growth has become in students and former students.

"Where do students want to live, and where are recent graduates likely to want to live?

"Well it's not big family homes on the fringe. It's apartments in the inner areas near the universities.

"There's a consequence to that, though – the premium to being closer in has increased. There's always a premium to being close in, but it's got larger."

Although conceding that risks can always build up in the housing market, Ms Ellis kept her distance from any talk of bubbles.

Nor did she mention the macro-prudential controls currently being considered by colleagues at the RBA as a way of cooling some segments of the housing market. Governor Glenn Stevens has referred to the more speculative elements of the market, and says the banks is consulting the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority about the possibility of controls on some types of property investment lending.

However, Ms Ellis said doomsayers who warned of the sharp rise in debt to income ratios in Australia over the past four decades ignored financial liberalisation, inflation targeting and the use of household savings to provide emergency buffers.

The current low-interest, low-inflation, high-savings rate environment meant servicing mortgages today was no more onerous than 10 years ago, she said.

"The affordability of a current mortgage is not unusually high," said Ms Ellis.

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