每日地产丨降息在望,专家预测澳房明年将实现两位数增长-8月31日拍卖前瞻
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8月24日周六的拍卖,悉尼墨尔本均获得不错的结果,分别为75%和73%。本周二RBA官员Guy Debelle表示,澳洲利率的或将到达0-0.5%的水平。所以金融市场预计今年稍后RBA将再次降息,明年2月继续降息至0.5%。
在这样的低息环境下,专家们也普遍预测未来悉尼墨尔本房市将出现较大价格增长。其中就包括SQM Research总经理Louis Christopher,他预测2019年第三季度悉尼房价将增长2%,而到第四季度将再增长4%,到明年,悉尼及墨尔本都将实现两位数的增长。
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悉尼拍卖清空率再创新高
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我们先看最近八周的图表,清空率持续反弹,从7月初的70%上升到目前的接近80%,增长明显;相比去年同期50-60%的清空率,房地产市场在众多利好消息的刺激下,已经触底反弹。8月17日,78%的清空率再创年内新高。8月24日,有所回调,录得75%。
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在过去几周,悉尼的拍卖数量连续上升。最低的数据为7月20日的269套,到8月24日,已经上升至436套。
清空率和去年同期相比,在过去八周内,全部高于去年同期,房市回暖痕迹明显。
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中位价方面,与去年同期八周相比,有四周胜出。
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墨尔本清空率平稳前进
我们再来看墨尔本,最近八周清空率上升势头良好,平稳并继续前行。最近八周里有六周超越70%。在连续三周74%的清空率之后,8月10日稍微回落,为70%。8月17日,24日均为73%。
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拍卖数量方面,和悉尼一样,7月数据偏低。近期最低数据为7月13日,只有320套物业参与拍卖,为阶段低点。随后几周,有所反弹。8月17日,拍卖数量为516套,录得八周内的新高。
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墨尔本今年的清空率八周均比去年同期要好。
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中位价方面,八周内有七周胜出。
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其余三城涨跌互现
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此外8月24日的拍卖,布里斯本74套,阿德莱德上市拍卖35套,堪培拉上市34套。清空率方面,布里斯本录得48%,阿德莱德78%,堪培拉录得65%。
最新澳洲房价增长指数(20190830)
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我们来看看澳洲各大城市房价的增长指数,该指数不分独立屋和公寓市场,统一计算。其中,在截至2019年8月30日的过去一年,悉尼下行7.27%。而墨尔本跌去6.45%,布里斯本下跌2.13%,阿德莱德下行1.15%,珀斯下降9.04%。
而最近一个季度(三个月),悉尼房价上升1.6%,墨尔本上涨1.66%。
如果独立屋和公寓分开比较,我们可以参考Corelogic最新的月结数据。
截至8月1日的一年里,霍巴特独立屋以3.1%的增幅拔得头筹。堪培拉以1.93%紧随其后。悉尼墨尔本这两大地产热门城市分别下行9.76%和10.67%,但在过去的一个月,悉尼墨尔本数据均获得正增长。
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我们再看下图,公寓方面的数据。悉尼公寓年内下跌7.14%,墨尔本下跌2.69%,同样在过去的一个月,悉尼墨尔本公寓数据均获得正增长。
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-end-
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作者:梁杰夫
每日地产联合创始人
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