每日地产丨房价季度涨幅突破5%,11月RBA仍大概率跟随美联储降息-11月2日拍卖前瞻
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10月26日,悉尼墨尔本迎来年度最多的上市物业,其中悉尼有729套物业上市拍卖,墨尔本为1435套,几乎为平均水平的两倍。但两城均获得75%的清空率,表现不俗。在刚过去的10月,悉尼墨尔本房价再次录得2%左右的月涨幅,使得过去一个季度两地房价上涨5%左右,势头十分强劲。随着美联储近日再次降息,澳洲RBA在11月仍然有过半概率会继续降息。
11月2日,悉尼有793套物业进行拍卖,而墨尔本由于公众假日的影响,只有218套物业上市。布里斯本为158套,阿德莱德137套,珀斯36套,堪培拉87套。
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悉尼拍卖清空率回调
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我们先看最近八周的图表,清空率均在70%以上,其中最高点是9月7日的年内高点82%。随后几周,数字有所回落,不过整体相比去年同期50-60%的清空率,房地产市场在众多利好消息的刺激下,回暖迅速。10月12日,19日,清空率在四周后重回80%。10月26日,清空率回调为75%。
![](https://i.aoweibang.com/img/gPlFsC1KwQPfPc-3PqX6SWg89bU3XHIppoJf3vri6AxMTURw_CmYffhawBjjoV8FKVx71T6_E7Es-pDmLShbyaUuAxj9jinvXryg59GqBMCOgCpXvWvU9bL4yFFPzqCdHMpXr_In0cyoP9z5EZvSN3WMfNoh6GhF7mGlHJ1aPlu9DMm3czUTLX-QjgWC-Iuh5rCwqZnK0jWcWJ_J5nrdeQ/awb.jpg)
在过去几周,悉尼的拍卖数量连续上升。在过去的八周内,最低的数据为10月5日的199套(公众假日),最高数据为 9月28日的749套。最近三周,数量维持在600多左右。
清空率和去年同期相比,在过去八周内,全部高于去年同期,房市回暖痕迹明显。
![](https://i.aoweibang.com/img/gPlFsC1KwQPfPc-3PqX6SWg89bU3XHIppoJf3vri6AxMTURw_CmYffhawBjjoV8FKVx71T6_E7Es-pDmLShbyb7OsPYCDTG1XArpIGfzJ97CyqcHJFqkomzu2znYWg_Hj6ltKOsT8p2kt6zPMtt_ShrN_3sVpwPBvuBTZmz_SatZbeDOtcEEUMQZ0VJY-sUOTfDC3YVAcdesRk5QnuNmKg/awb.jpg)
中位价方面,与去年同期八周相比,有四周胜出。
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墨尔本清空率反弹
我们再来看墨尔本,最近八周清空率虽然有起伏但基本维持在较高水平。最近八周有六周超越70%。9月21日,墨尔本清空率录得79%,创下年内新高。随后三周,清空率冲高回落,10月5日及12日均为68%。随后两周,分别为73%及75%。
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拍卖数量方面,和悉尼一样,最近八周步步升高。9月28日,由于公众假日的影响,只有49套物业上市。随后10月5日又恢复正常,有717套物业出现在拍卖市场上。12日数量再次增加,为845套。10月26日为超级星期六,有1400多套物业上市拍卖。
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墨尔本今年的清空率八周均比去年同期要好。
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中位价方面,今年八周均比去年同期数据要高。
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其余三城涨跌互见
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此外10月26日的拍卖,布里斯本96套,阿德莱德上市拍卖83套,堪培拉上市39套。清空率方面,布里斯本录得33%,阿德莱德76%,堪培拉47%。
最新澳洲房价增长指数(20191102)
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我们来看看澳洲各大城市房价的增长指数,该指数不分独立屋和公寓市场,统一计算。其中,在截至2019年11月2日的过去一年,悉尼下行2.39%。而墨尔本跌去0.97%,布里斯本下跌1.05%,阿德莱德下行0.9%,珀斯下降8.68%。
而最近一个季度(三个月),悉尼房价上升5.05%,墨尔本上涨5.54%。
如果独立屋和公寓分开比较,我们可以参考Corelogic最新的月结数据。
截至11月1日的一年里,堪培拉独立屋以2.96%的增幅拔得头筹。霍巴特以2.95%紧随其后。悉尼墨尔本这两大地产热门城市分别下行2.59%和2.67%,但在过去的一个月,悉尼墨尔本数据均获得强劲增长。
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我们再看下图,公寓方面的数据。悉尼公寓年内下跌2.16%,墨尔本则是另外一番景象,上涨2.58%,同样在过去的一个月,悉尼墨尔本公寓数据均获得正增长。
![](https://i.aoweibang.com/img/gPlFsC1KwQPfPc-3PqX6SWg89bU3XHIppoJf3vri6AxMTURw_CmYffhawBjjoV8FKVx71T6_E7Es-pDmLShbyeTm3YFO38X2e_erAiUeiOLiYFoJLzvNFOvrUNn5H8ejihq5a-povkqtnO3ivCZ6rNZmZOsI8R7y1V7vco_s7mVZbeDOtcEEUMQZ0VJY-sUOTfDC3YVAcdesRk5QnuNmKg/awb.jpg)
-end-
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作者:梁杰夫
房圈/每日地产联合创始人
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